A global weather prediction team is warning that west Wales faces an unsettled start to autumn full of storms packing a tropical punch.

Members of AccuWeather’s international long-range forecasting team Tyler Roys and Alan Reppert warn that western Wales and Ireland face a stormy start to the season as part of their predictions for Europe.

Before the storm track fully shifts south towards Spain and Portugal in autumn, some storminess will linger over Ireland and the UK to start the season - and some of these storms may pack a tropical punch.

Despite a record-setting hurricane season in 2020, none of the tropical storms survived the trek across the northern Atlantic Ocean, with all of the systems dissipating before reaching Europe.

AccuWeather forecasters warn that this year could be a different story.

Mr. Reppert said: “With sea-surface temperatures 1°C to 3°C above normal this year, there is plenty of energy to sustain any tropical features that track through the region.”

“That is why one to three tropical entities are expected to reach Europe in the coming months,” said Mr. Roys, adding that tropical storms or tropical rainstorms may survive the trip across the Atlantic and reach the continent.

During the first half of the season a tropical system would be most likely to strike in the region of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and northern England.

But as the storm track shifts south into late October and November, this threat would also shift south into northwestern Spain and Portugal.

The tropics won’t be the only source of stormy weather across western Europe in autumn.

A La Niña pattern ramping up during the autumn and taking hold during the winter would bring a windstorm season similar to the 2020-2021 season in western Europe.

The number of windstorms during last year’s season was right around normal, and AccuWeather forecasters expect the same this year.